易胜博官网

A Primary Primary

How Yankee frugality and Hubert Humphrey helped make the 易胜博官网 presidential primary an electoral spectacle

Primary season falls every quadrennial. It鈥檚 a marathon that starts about 18 months before the actual vote, when candidates 鈥� reporters in tow 鈥� press the flesh with voters on a very regular basis.听 易胜博官网鈥檚 exact primary day falls roughly between Halloween and the time the first crocuses pop up in the yard. And, importantly, it falls before any other primary election in the country.
But it almost didn鈥檛.

An Accident of History
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As Andy Smith explains it, in 1915, a 易胜博官网 lawmaker proposed a bill that would have set the state鈥檚 primary election during the third week
of May. State lawmakers quickly squashed that legislation, pointing out that a May primary would require lighting and heating town halls across the state twice. Instead, legislators set the primary date to coincide with town meeting day, which had occurred on the second Tuesday of March since the early 1800s. Thus, it was Yankee frugality rather than a codified plan that made 易胜博官网鈥檚 first primary in 1916 one of the earliest in the nation.

But, Smith notes, 鈥淣obody paid much attention to primaries back then. Candidates would compete in a couple of primaries to show they had public support, but they really weren鈥檛 competing for delegates in the primaries.鈥� Although Republicans had a more open process, historically, and had held more primaries, as recently as the late 1960s, it was Democratic Party leaders in smoke-filled rooms deciding whom their nominees would be. That changed after the McGovern-Fraser reforms.

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Primaries Become Primary
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Despite alienating many liberals by toeing the line on U.S. war policy during his time as Lyndon B. Johnson鈥檚 vice president, Hubert Humphrey won the nomination at the 1968 Democratic National Convention without competing in a single primary.

鈥淭here were a lot of angry Democratic voters, many of whom were anti-war, who were upset that Humphrey got the nomination despite not getting a single vote in a primary,鈥� Smith says.

The convention subsequently created a commission headed by then-Sen. George McGovern and Rep. Donald Fraser that set rules for how Democrats would vote on delegates for the national convention. The commission determined the party needed a much more democratic system 鈥� either a caucus or a primary 鈥� for choosing delegates. 鈥淲hat the commission really did was get rid of the whole idea that you could run for president and not compete,鈥� Smith says. 鈥淣ow primaries became important.鈥� Especially early primaries.

McGovern, who resigned from the commission in 1971 to run for president, campaigned heavily in 易胜博官网 and other early states. He was the first candidate to understand the importance of the momentum-building early primaries, Smith says.

鈥淲hy else would 易胜博官网 be important? We鈥檙e such a small state, we have so few delegates; it doesn鈥檛 really matter if you win 易胜博官网 or not in terms of actually getting delegates at the convention. It鈥檚 the momentum that鈥檚 important, to show that you can win in an early state.鈥�

McGovern won the nomination in 1972. Four years later, Jimmy Carter clinched the nomination using a similar strategy around the early primaries.

鈥淪o now not only do the candidates understand that鈥檚 how you can win the nomination, but states begin realizing the importance of the early primary. That鈥檚 when you saw other states begin to move their primaries earlier and earlier,鈥� Smith says. And 易胜博官网鈥檚 primary moved in concert when state leaders abandoned the set date in March in favor of a more flexible approach.

Here Comes the Cliffhanger
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So why has 易胜博官网 been able to retain first-in-the-nation primary status despite the jockeying of other states? The answer to that, and many other details that make the 易胜博官网 primary a fascinating topic, is being discussed this fall in FIRST! Understanding 易胜博官网鈥檚 Presidential Primary, a free and online six-week course Smith is teaching with Dante Scala, associate professor of political science. FIRST! participants gain not only an historical perspective on the primary but also a better appreciation of how elections and primaries actually work, and how different they are from one another.

More than 1200 individuals from locations around the globe are taking part in the course 鈥� and benefiting from the wisdom of the two leading scholars on the subject.听 Smith hopes that aside from shedding light on the primary, the class will also inspire participants to head to the state during the week between the Iowa caucuses and the 易胜博官网 primary and immerse themselves in the experience. 鈥淕o to Manchester,鈥� he says. 鈥淪ee the media circus, the political circus. It鈥檚 like political Disneyland.鈥�

鈥擳racey Bentley

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FIRST! Understanding 易胜博官网鈥檚 Presidential Primary runs through November 30. Upon conclusion, the class will be archived online and free for the taking.

The 2016 易胜博官网 primary 鈥� the 100th anniversary of the state鈥檚 first 鈥� is currently scheduled for Feb. 9, 2016, but that could change depending on the movement of primaries in other states. The official date will be set by 易胜博官网 Secretary of State Bill Gardner 鈥�70 in November.

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Why does little 易胜博官网 wield so much power in the presidential nomination process? Just in time for the 2016 election season, 易胜博官网 Survey Center founder David Moore and current Survey Center director Andrew Smith have published a new book, The First Primary, that takes a look at how 鈥� and why 鈥� the Granite State has shaped political elections over the past century. In the first chapter, Moore and Smith examine the issue of 鈥溡资げ┕偻� envy鈥�: the perception that the state derives substantial benefits from its first-in-the-nation status while also playing an outsized role in the presidential election.

易胜博官网 Envy

In 1952, 易胜博官网 held its first primary in which voters could indicate their presidential preference. For the next two decades, as the results of the primary began to shape the nomination process in significant ways, 易胜博官网 envy began to fester. After the major reforms to the process took effect in 1972, which shifted the power of nomination from party bosses to the voters, the envy blossomed into full-scale resentment, as 易胜博官网鈥檚 increasing influence on the process at the national level seemed way out of line with its
small size.

William Mayer at Northeastern University undertook a systematic study of the factors that predict how successful candidates are in their quest for the presidential nomination. The study is somewhat dated now, since it was published ten years ago and thus excludes the last three elections. Nevertheless, it still provides an insight into the dynamics of the nomination process for the previous two decades. And it confirms at least one tenet of 易胜博官网 envy, that the state plays a highly significant role in determining how many delegates a candidate wins.

In fact, according to Mayer鈥檚 study of the elections from 1980 through 2000, the two most important predictors of a candidate鈥檚 overall success were (1) the national poll standings before the start of the nomination process (before the start of the Iowa caucuses) and (2) the success of a candidate鈥檚 campaign in the 易胜博官网 primary 鈥� either a first or second place showing. His model shows that coming in first in the state increases a candidate鈥檚 expected share of the total primary vote (including all states) by 鈥渁 remarkable鈥� 27 percentage points, and a second-place finish in 易胜博官网 (in a multi-candidate race) increases the total by 17 points. By contrast, Iowa鈥檚 contribution to a candidate鈥檚 success in the nomination process appears to be indirect at best, sometimes helping (but sometimes hurting) a candidate鈥檚 success in 易胜博官网, which could then influence how well the candidate does in the long run. 鈥淥f the two highly publicized events that lead off the delegate selection calendar,鈥� Mayer notes, 鈥渢he 易胜博官网 Primary towers over the Iowa Caucuses in its impact on recent nomination races.鈥�

易胜博官网 envy is the perception that 易胜博官网, because it holds the first primary in the nation, derives a substantial array of political and economic benefits from that position and plays a highly significant role in determining who ultimately wins the major-party presidential nominations, despite the fact that it is a small state and is, in important ways, not particularly representative of the country as a whole.

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鈥� William G. Mayer and Andrew E. Busch
听听听听 The Front-Loading Problem in Presidential Nominations

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Defenders of the primary say that its small size is a reason that 易胜博官网 is a good state to begin the nomination process. Candidates with little money can invest their time in grassroots campaigning, and advertising on local television and in local newspapers is within reach of small campaigns that may not be able to afford spots in the extremely expensive large media markets in bigger states. Also, high turnout seems to indicate that 易胜博官网 voters are more engaged in the nomination process than are voters in other states.

And political reporters like the primary as well 鈥� or certainly they like covering the small state of 易胜博官网 more than they like trying to cover the much more spread-out state of Iowa. Perhaps the clearest articulation of this comes from veteran columnist Jules Witcover:

鈥淭he 易胜博官网 primary has become as much a staple in the national political diet as national conventions, election day in November, or a president鈥檚 inauguration. . .听 Veteran political reporters like 易胜博官网 because they know all the players in presidential politics down through the years, and the state is so manageable. One can bed down in Manchester for several weeks and travel to most parts of the state and back in a day. It is like going to spring training camp for a major-league baseball player. Here is the place where rookies on the make and veterans trying to prove they have one more season in them test themselves before smaller crowds than they will encounter later down the road."

Importance of the 易胜博官网 Primary Overrated?

Despite conventional wisdom, there is some evidence that the importance attached to the 易胜博官网 primary may be overblown. The very same article by William Mayer that reports the towering influence of the 易胜博官网 primary also contends that the nomination system has evolved into one that highly favors the early front-runners. In the first two elections following adoption of the reforms, George McGovern (1972) and Jimmy Carter (1976) were not the front-runners for the nomination, yet each won his party鈥檚 nomination. And in 1980 George Bush, also not the front-runner, seemed to have the momentum to win the GOP nomination after his surprise victory over Ronald Reagan in the Iowa caucuses 鈥� but he was derailed in 易胜博官网. The long-shot candidate Gary Hart in 1984 experienced the same tantalizing hope of winning the nomination after his surprise victory over front-runner Walter Mondale in the 易胜博官网 primary. But in the end, Mondale won. Still, these early victories and almost-victories by long-shot candidates gave the impression that momentum from the 易胜博官网 primary was an important, and sometimes even determinative, factor in a candidate鈥檚 quest for the nomination. No longer, says Mayer. 鈥淲hatever may have happened in 1972 or 1976, a very different sort of outcome has occurred in every race since then. In the last ten contested nomination races, the candidate who won was the front-runner 鈥� or at least one of the front- runners 鈥� before any of the delegates
were selected.鈥�

鈥淲hatever may have happened in 1972 or 1976, a very different sort of outcome has occurred in every race since then. In the last ten contested nomination races, the candidate who won was the front-runner 鈥� or at least one of the front- runners 鈥� before any of the delegates were selected.鈥�

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The implications of this development are profound. They suggest that the nomination process is mostly one of confirming what everybody (or at least
a plurality) is thinking before even the first vote is cast. In that case, it no longer really matters which state goes first or second in the nomination calendar, because all of the work that is needed to win the primaries 鈥� fund-raising, establishing a competitive organization, strategic planning 鈥� has already been accomplished and is reflected in the national polls. Thus, the presumed importance of the 易胜博官网 primary is really an illusion. The primary is more a reflection of the candidates鈥� strengths more broadly than it is an opportunity for a vulnerable candidate to obtain momentum for the future.

Then came the election of 2008, which contradicts Mayer鈥檚 model. The Democratic Party鈥檚 dominant front-runner for all of 2007 and into 2008 was Hillary Clinton, who retained her lead even after the Iowa caucuses, which she lost to the eventual nominee, Barack Obama. And the GOP front-runner for all of 2007 right up until the Iowa caucuses in 2008 was Rudy Giuliani, followed briefly by Mike Huckabee after his surprise win in Iowa, followed by the eventual nominee, John McCain. Both of these nomination races reveal how important the early contests actually were. By winning Iowa, Obama did in fact gain momentum that in the long run helped him prevail. By winning in 易胜博官网, Clinton staved off a complete collapse of her candidacy, which almost certainly would have occurred had she lost the primary as well as the caucuses. Similarly, McCain鈥檚 鈥渃omeback鈥� in 2008 was made possible by his victory in 易胜博官网, after he had fallen to fourth place in the national polls with only 10 percent support.

The last election cycle also calls into question the prediction that the early front-runner will necessarily (or almost certainly) win the nomination. In 2011, Mitt Romney led in the polls until August, when Rick Perry surged into the lead, before Herman Cain had a temporary fling at being the leader, followed by Newt Gingrich, who was at the top of the polls just before the Iowa caucuses. Romney was not the front-runner as the nomination process began, though eventually he won.

For the 2016 election cycle, there appears as of this writing (winter of 2015) to be no clear front-runner for the GOP nomination, while Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming front-runner for the Democratic nomination. Given Mayer鈥檚 model and the overwhelming consensus of the party elite, it would appear that however the press might try to insist that Clinton鈥檚 nomination is not a sure bet, in fact it is. The 易胜博官网 primary is likely merely to confirm that outcome, rather than actually contribute to it. For the front-runner-less Republicans, however, the 易胜博官网 primary and the Iowa caucuses are likely to have profound effects on who eventually wins the nomination.

Regardless of how much the party establishments are able to 鈥渢ilt the playing field鈥� in favor of their preferred candidates, we know that candidates, political leaders, and 鈥� most importantly 鈥� the press all believe that the 易胜博官网 primary is monumentally important. No serious presidential candidate will skip 易胜博官网 in the belief that a more favorable primary later in the calendar will be more advantageous than competing in the Granite State.

This situation raises a question we do not intend to address: Given the small size and unrepresentative character of the state, should 易胜博官网 be allowed to hold the first primary? That is a question for another book or venue. Here we do not defend 易胜博官网鈥檚 premier position, nor do we condemn it. We recognize it as a fact of life, and that the state is doggedly determined to keep it that way. We are more interested in addressing what is, rather than what should be.

And the first question is this: How did 易胜博官网 get and maintain its premier position in the nomination calendar, despite widespread 易胜博官网 envy and almost universal opposition from other states?

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Adapted from The First Primary, by David Moore and Andrew Smith (University of 易胜博官网 Press 2015). Excerpted with permission.

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Originally published in 易胜博官网 Magazine鈥�